🏠 Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Update – September 2025

📊 Source: The Cromford Report, Tina Tamboer – Senior Housing Analyst

🌤️ Market Overview

As of September 2025, the Greater Phoenix housing market continues to show stabilization amid economic headwinds. Despite a temporary slowdown caused by the October 1st government shutdown and delayed federal data, the local real estate scene remains resilient.

  • Mortgage rates have fluctuated between 6.1% and 7.2% this year, easing slightly to around 6.3% after the Federal Reserve’s September rate cut.

  • Every 1% drop in mortgage rates translates to roughly 10% lower principal and interest payments, providing renewed buyer motivation.

  • Accepted contracts are up 18% year-over-year, signaling stronger demand heading into Q4 2025.

📈 Key Market Indicators

  • Total Homes Under Contract: +6.9% from last year

  • Active Listings Supply: +18.8% year-over-year (buyers have more options)

  • Rental MLS Supply: +17%, indicating some cooling in the rental market

  • Price Reductions: Continuing at a steady pace as sellers adjust to buyer sensitivity

The Cromford Market Index (CMI) ticked up by 3.3 points, indicating a slight improvement in seller advantage, but overall conditions remain balanced across most areas.

🏘️ Market Breakdown by Area

  • Seller’s Markets: Anthem, Fountain Hills, Scottsdale, Chandler, Apache Junction, and Gilbert

  • Balanced Markets: Mesa, Phoenix, Glendale, Tempe, and Tolleson

  • Buyer’s Markets: Peoria, Goodyear, Queen Creek, Surprise, Buckeye, and Casa Grande

This regional variation means strategy matters — pricing and presentation are key in balanced zones, while opportunities abound in buyer-friendly areas.

💰 Home Prices & Appreciation

  • Median Sale Price: $445,000 (↑ 2.3% YoY)

  • Average Price per Sq Ft: $285.76 (virtually flat YoY)

  • Sales Volume: +10.9% year-over-year for September

  • Concessions: Offered in 56% of transactions, with a median of $10,000 toward closing costs or repairs.

Sale prices remain a lagging indicator, reflecting contracts written 4–6 weeks earlier, so today’s activity will influence pricing later this fall.

🏗️ New Construction Trends

 

  • Single-family permits across Maricopa and Pinal Counties have softened, reflecting cautious builder sentiment amid labor market tightening.

  • Construction job openings and layoffs both dipped to 2.2% in August, showing a modest slowdown in the building sector.

⚖️ The Bottom Line

 

The Greater Phoenix market is moving toward equilibrium — supply has increased, rates are easing slightly, and buyers are returning with renewed confidence. While sellers still hold an edge in select areas, most of the Valley is now well-balanced, offering fair opportunities for both sides.