“The Market Is Turning — and Buyers Still Have a Window of Opportunity”

The Greater Phoenix housing market is showing early signs of change.
According to the Cromford Market Index (CMI), anything below 90 indicates a buyer’s market. Since November 2024, we’ve been in that zone — hitting a low of 72 before bouncing back mid-July.
As of September 11, the index is up to 81, gaining 9 points in just two months. If the trend continues, we could reach a balanced market (above 90) by November.

That means buyers may not have as much time left to take advantage of today’s favorable conditions.

💰 Buyer Benefits Are Strong — For Now

  • Mortgage rates have fallen from 7.26% in January to 6.27% in September — nearly a full percentage point lower.

  • That drop alone cuts monthly payments by about 10%.

  • Home prices in the $300K–$600K range are down about 2%.

  • Combine those, and total monthly savings are around 12% compared to January.

Here’s a quick example:
A $2,400 monthly payment back in January now costs about $2,112 — saving roughly $288 each month.

Plus, over 60% of recent sales in the $225K–$600K range have sellers paying buyers’ closing costs. Many include a 2/1 rate buydown, lowering the buyer’s payment even more in the first two years.

If rates stay low and demand continues to rise, the buyer’s advantage could disappear by year’s end.
Right now, though — many homes are still “on sale.”

📉 What About Sellers?

Even with talk of a possible recession (UBS recently estimated a 93% chance), history shows housing can stay strong.
In Phoenix, home sales actually rose during the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions.
Why? When the economy slows, investors often move money into safer bonds — pushing mortgage rates lower and bringing more buyers back into the market.

That said, the holiday months tend to be slower for sellers, and luxury/retirement communities often cool during recessions since those buyers rely more on investments than on mortgage rates.

🏠 Bottom Line

  • Buyers: The window for big savings may close soon.

  • Sellers: Demand could rise if rates stay low — but expect some ups and downs this fall.

  • Everyone: Keep an eye on rates and the Cromford Market Index. Change is in the air!

Source:
Adapted from “Payments Drop 12%, Monthly Sales Up 9.4% As the Market Turns: Could a Recession be Good for Housing?”
by Tina Tamboer, Senior Housing Analyst, The Cromford Report ©2025 Cromford Associates LLC and Tamboer Consulting LLC.